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mozzie 2023-11-06 13:25:44 +08:00
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@ -10,7 +10,7 @@
<meta name="description" content=""> <meta name="description" content="">
<meta name="keywords" content=""> <meta name="keywords" content="">
<meta name="author" content="Mozzie"> <meta name="author" content="Mozzie">
<link rel="canonical" href="https://mozzie.cn/2023/10/25/front-end/verdaccio/"> <link rel="canonical" href="https://mozzie.cn/2023/10/20/front-end/verdaccio/">
<link rel="icon" type="image/svg" href='data:image/svg+xml,<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M16 7h1a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v.5a.5.5 0 0 0 .5.5a.5.5 0 0 1 .5.5v3a.5.5 0 0 1-.5.5a.5.5 0 0 0-.5.5v.5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2"></path><path d="M8 7H6a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v6a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h1"></path><path d="M12 8l-2 4h3l-2 4"></path></g></svg>'> <link rel="icon" type="image/svg" href='data:image/svg+xml,<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M16 7h1a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v.5a.5.5 0 0 0 .5.5a.5.5 0 0 1 .5.5v3a.5.5 0 0 1-.5.5a.5.5 0 0 0-.5.5v.5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2"></path><path d="M8 7H6a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v6a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h1"></path><path d="M12 8l-2 4h3l-2 4"></path></g></svg>'>
@ -182,9 +182,20 @@
</a> </a>
</li> </li>
<li class="">
<a href="/categories/Finance/">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M20 4l-2 14.5l-6 2l-6-2L4 4z"></path><path d="M7.5 8h3v8l-2-1"></path><path d="M16.5 8H14a.5.5 0 0 0-.5.5v3a.5.5 0 0 0 .5.5h1.423a.5.5 0 0 1 .495.57L15.5 15.5l-2 .5"></path></g></svg>
<div class="ellipsis">
<span>
Finance
</span>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li class="active"> <li class="active">
<a href="/categories/Front-End/"> <a href="/categories/Front-End/">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M20 4l-2 14.5l-6 2l-6-2L4 4z"></path><path d="M7.5 8h3v8l-2-1"></path><path d="M16.5 8H14a.5.5 0 0 0-.5.5v3a.5.5 0 0 0 .5.5h1.423a.5.5 0 0 1 .495.57L15.5 15.5l-2 .5"></path></g></svg>
<div class="ellipsis"> <div class="ellipsis">
<span> <span>
Front-End Front-End
@ -422,9 +433,9 @@
<div class="copyright"> <div class="copyright">
<a target="_blank" href="https://mozzie.cn/2023/10/25/front-end/verdaccio/"> <a target="_blank" href="https://mozzie.cn/2023/10/20/front-end/verdaccio/">
<span>Post Url</span> <span>Post Url</span>
<span>https://mozzie.cn/2023/10/25/front-end/verdaccio/</span> <span>https://mozzie.cn/2023/10/20/front-end/verdaccio/</span>
</a> </a>
<ul> <ul>
<li> <li>
@ -433,7 +444,7 @@
</li> </li>
<li> <li>
<span>Published on</span> <span>Published on</span>
<p>2023-10-25</p> <p>2023-10-20</p>
</li> </li>
<li> <li>
<span>License</span> <span>License</span>

View File

@ -10,7 +10,7 @@
<meta name="description" content=""> <meta name="description" content="">
<meta name="keywords" content=""> <meta name="keywords" content="">
<meta name="author" content="Mozzie"> <meta name="author" content="Mozzie">
<link rel="canonical" href="https://mozzie.cn/2023/11/04/Cosy-Starter-Guide/"> <link rel="canonical" href="https://mozzie.cn/2023/10/23/Cosy-Starter-Guide/">
<link rel="icon" type="image/svg" href='data:image/svg+xml,<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M16 7h1a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v.5a.5.5 0 0 0 .5.5a.5.5 0 0 1 .5.5v3a.5.5 0 0 1-.5.5a.5.5 0 0 0-.5.5v.5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2"></path><path d="M8 7H6a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v6a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h1"></path><path d="M12 8l-2 4h3l-2 4"></path></g></svg>'> <link rel="icon" type="image/svg" href='data:image/svg+xml,<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M16 7h1a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v.5a.5.5 0 0 0 .5.5a.5.5 0 0 1 .5.5v3a.5.5 0 0 1-.5.5a.5.5 0 0 0-.5.5v.5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2"></path><path d="M8 7H6a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v6a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h1"></path><path d="M12 8l-2 4h3l-2 4"></path></g></svg>'>
@ -183,8 +183,19 @@
</li> </li>
<li class=""> <li class="">
<a href="/categories/Front-End/"> <a href="/categories/Finance/">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M20 4l-2 14.5l-6 2l-6-2L4 4z"></path><path d="M7.5 8h3v8l-2-1"></path><path d="M16.5 8H14a.5.5 0 0 0-.5.5v3a.5.5 0 0 0 .5.5h1.423a.5.5 0 0 1 .495.57L15.5 15.5l-2 .5"></path></g></svg> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M20 4l-2 14.5l-6 2l-6-2L4 4z"></path><path d="M7.5 8h3v8l-2-1"></path><path d="M16.5 8H14a.5.5 0 0 0-.5.5v3a.5.5 0 0 0 .5.5h1.423a.5.5 0 0 1 .495.57L15.5 15.5l-2 .5"></path></g></svg>
<div class="ellipsis">
<span>
Finance
</span>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li class="">
<a href="/categories/Front-End/">
<div class="ellipsis"> <div class="ellipsis">
<span> <span>
Front-End Front-End
@ -593,9 +604,9 @@ hexo algolia<span aria-hidden="true" class="line-numbers-rows"><span></span><spa
<div class="copyright"> <div class="copyright">
<a target="_blank" href="https://mozzie.cn/2023/11/04/Cosy-Starter-Guide/"> <a target="_blank" href="https://mozzie.cn/2023/10/23/Cosy-Starter-Guide/">
<span>Post Url</span> <span>Post Url</span>
<span>https://mozzie.cn/2023/11/04/Cosy-Starter-Guide/</span> <span>https://mozzie.cn/2023/10/23/Cosy-Starter-Guide/</span>
</a> </a>
<ul> <ul>
<li> <li>
@ -604,7 +615,7 @@ hexo algolia<span aria-hidden="true" class="line-numbers-rows"><span></span><spa
</li> </li>
<li> <li>
<span>Published on</span> <span>Published on</span>
<p>2023-11-04</p> <p>2023-10-23</p>
</li> </li>
<li> <li>
<span>License</span> <span>License</span>

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@ -10,7 +10,7 @@
<meta name="description" content="A very simple way to add structured data to a page."> <meta name="description" content="A very simple way to add structured data to a page.">
<meta name="keywords" content="Markdown, 代码高亮 (Codes), 引用 (Blockquotes), 列表 (Lists), 图片 (Images), 表格 (Tables), Emoji, TeX(KaTeX), 流程图 (mermaid)"> <meta name="keywords" content="Markdown, 代码高亮 (Codes), 引用 (Blockquotes), 列表 (Lists), 图片 (Images), 表格 (Tables), Emoji, TeX(KaTeX), 流程图 (mermaid)">
<meta name="author" content="Mozzie"> <meta name="author" content="Mozzie">
<link rel="canonical" href="https://mozzie.cn/2023/10/25/Markdown%20Sample/"> <link rel="canonical" href="https://mozzie.cn/2023/10/23/Markdown%20Sample/">
<link rel="icon" type="image/svg" href='data:image/svg+xml,<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M16 7h1a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v.5a.5.5 0 0 0 .5.5a.5.5 0 0 1 .5.5v3a.5.5 0 0 1-.5.5a.5.5 0 0 0-.5.5v.5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2"></path><path d="M8 7H6a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v6a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h1"></path><path d="M12 8l-2 4h3l-2 4"></path></g></svg>'> <link rel="icon" type="image/svg" href='data:image/svg+xml,<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M16 7h1a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v.5a.5.5 0 0 0 .5.5a.5.5 0 0 1 .5.5v3a.5.5 0 0 1-.5.5a.5.5 0 0 0-.5.5v.5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2"></path><path d="M8 7H6a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v6a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h1"></path><path d="M12 8l-2 4h3l-2 4"></path></g></svg>'>
@ -183,8 +183,19 @@
</li> </li>
<li class=""> <li class="">
<a href="/categories/Front-End/"> <a href="/categories/Finance/">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M20 4l-2 14.5l-6 2l-6-2L4 4z"></path><path d="M7.5 8h3v8l-2-1"></path><path d="M16.5 8H14a.5.5 0 0 0-.5.5v3a.5.5 0 0 0 .5.5h1.423a.5.5 0 0 1 .495.57L15.5 15.5l-2 .5"></path></g></svg> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M20 4l-2 14.5l-6 2l-6-2L4 4z"></path><path d="M7.5 8h3v8l-2-1"></path><path d="M16.5 8H14a.5.5 0 0 0-.5.5v3a.5.5 0 0 0 .5.5h1.423a.5.5 0 0 1 .495.57L15.5 15.5l-2 .5"></path></g></svg>
<div class="ellipsis">
<span>
Finance
</span>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li class="">
<a href="/categories/Front-End/">
<div class="ellipsis"> <div class="ellipsis">
<span> <span>
Front-End Front-End
@ -283,7 +294,7 @@
<p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://baidu.com/">https://baidu.com</a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://baidu.com/">https://baidu.com</a></p>
<p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="http://www.this-anchor-link.com/">锚点链接</a> </p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="http://www.this-anchor-link.com/">锚点链接</a> </p>
<p><a href="mailto:test.test@gmail.com">mailto:test.test@gmail.com</a></p> <p><a href="mailto:test.test@gmail.com">mailto:test.test@gmail.com</a></p>
<p>GFM a-tail link <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://my.oschina.net/u/3691274">@pandao</a> 邮箱地址自动链接 <a href="mailto:&#x74;&#101;&#115;&#x74;&#46;&#116;&#x65;&#115;&#x74;&#x40;&#103;&#x6d;&#97;&#x69;&#x6c;&#46;&#99;&#x6f;&#x6d;">&#x74;&#101;&#115;&#x74;&#46;&#116;&#x65;&#115;&#x74;&#x40;&#103;&#x6d;&#97;&#x69;&#x6c;&#46;&#99;&#x6f;&#x6d;</a> <a href="mailto:&#119;&#x77;&#119;&#x40;&#118;&#105;&#112;&#46;&#113;&#113;&#46;&#99;&#111;&#109;">&#119;&#x77;&#119;&#x40;&#118;&#105;&#112;&#46;&#113;&#113;&#46;&#99;&#111;&#109;</a></p> <p>GFM a-tail link <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://my.oschina.net/u/3691274">@pandao</a> 邮箱地址自动链接 <a href="mailto:&#x74;&#x65;&#x73;&#116;&#46;&#116;&#x65;&#115;&#116;&#64;&#x67;&#x6d;&#97;&#x69;&#108;&#x2e;&#x63;&#111;&#109;">&#x74;&#x65;&#x73;&#116;&#46;&#116;&#x65;&#115;&#116;&#64;&#x67;&#x6d;&#97;&#x69;&#108;&#x2e;&#x63;&#111;&#109;</a> <a href="mailto:&#x77;&#x77;&#119;&#x40;&#118;&#x69;&#112;&#x2e;&#113;&#x71;&#x2e;&#99;&#111;&#109;">&#x77;&#x77;&#119;&#x40;&#118;&#x69;&#112;&#x2e;&#113;&#x71;&#x2e;&#99;&#111;&#109;</a></p>
<blockquote> <blockquote>
<p>@pandao</p> <p>@pandao</p>
</blockquote> </blockquote>
@ -540,9 +551,9 @@ testBox<span class="token punctuation">.</span><span class="token function">add<
<div class="copyright"> <div class="copyright">
<a target="_blank" href="https://mozzie.cn/2023/10/25/Markdown%20Sample/"> <a target="_blank" href="https://mozzie.cn/2023/10/23/Markdown%20Sample/">
<span>Post Url</span> <span>Post Url</span>
<span>https://mozzie.cn/2023/10/25/Markdown%20Sample/</span> <span>https://mozzie.cn/2023/10/23/Markdown%20Sample/</span>
</a> </a>
<ul> <ul>
<li> <li>
@ -551,7 +562,7 @@ testBox<span class="token punctuation">.</span><span class="token function">add<
</li> </li>
<li> <li>
<span>Published on</span> <span>Published on</span>
<p>2023-10-25</p> <p>2023-10-23</p>
</li> </li>
<li> <li>
<span>License</span> <span>License</span>

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@ -0,0 +1,438 @@
<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>
有效对话指南
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<meta name="author" content="Mozzie">
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<meta name="generator" content="Hexo 6.3.0"></head>
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<article><p>卡耐基说过:要说服别人同意你的观点,你就要让他觉得这是他自己的观点。也就是说,本质上没有人真正被别人说服,听或者不听都是他们自己的主动选择</p>
<h1 id="目的"><a href="#目的" class="headerlink" title="目的"></a>目的</h1><p>沟通目的无非两个:</p>
<ul>
<li>让对方认同我们的观点</li>
<li>或者按我们说的做</li>
</ul>
<h1 id="搞定情绪"><a href="#搞定情绪" class="headerlink" title="搞定情绪"></a>搞定情绪</h1><p>大多数人的立场和行为,是由情绪决定的,对方不喜欢你,你再怎么努力也很难说服他,只有他认可你这个人你的话他才会听。所以动之以理之前要先小之以轻,你把他情绪搞定了,沟通也就成功了一半</p>
<h2 id="夸-细节"><a href="#夸-细节" class="headerlink" title="夸 - 细节"></a>夸 - 细节</h2><p>不吝赞美,就一个字“夸”,具体怎么夸呢?</p>
<p>细节就是不要太笼统:</p>
<ul>
<li>😭 你穿的真好看 </li>
<li>😊 今天的上衣显得你很白,太美了</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="夸-对比"><a href="#夸-对比" class="headerlink" title="夸 - 对比"></a>夸 - 对比</h2><ul>
<li>😭 你今天穿的真好看</li>
<li>😊 你今天穿的真好看,一般人可传不出这种气质</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="我能理解你,换我也生气"><a href="#我能理解你,换我也生气" class="headerlink" title="我能理解你,换我也生气"></a>我能理解你,换我也生气</h2><p>接纳对方的负面情绪,把双方情绪拉回到安全范围内。</p>
<h2 id="肢体同步"><a href="#肢体同步" class="headerlink" title="肢体同步"></a>肢体同步</h2><p>如果你的肢体动作跟对方同步,它会产生一种被共情的感觉</p>
<ul>
<li>对方说的火热,身体前倾,伺机凑近</li>
<li>思考一到两秒钟再反馈,这个简单的停顿</li>
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<h1 id="只陈述不评论"><a href="#只陈述不评论" class="headerlink" title="只陈述不评论"></a>只陈述不评论</h1><p>事实不会引起争议</p>
<p>比如:孩子考试没及格是事实,说他笨死了就是评论了。</p>
<p>再比如:你这周上班迟到两次,这是事实,说你经常迟到就是评论了。</p>
<h2 id="评论副词"><a href="#评论副词" class="headerlink" title="评论副词"></a>评论副词</h2><p>尽量规避一些跟评论相关的糊的频率副词,比如</p>
<ul>
<li></li>
<li></li>
<li></li>
<li>总是</li>
<li>永远</li>
<li>每次</li>
</ul>
<h1 id="保持开放性"><a href="#保持开放性" class="headerlink" title="保持开放性"></a>保持开放性</h1><p>还拿上面的例子,这些话对方只能回答好或者不好,然后结束沟通</p>
<ul>
<li>孩子没及格,老爸说下次必须及格。</li>
<li>你上班迟到,老板说再迟到扣薪水。</li>
</ul>
<p>如果换成开放式沟通:</p>
<ul>
<li>老爸说咱们聊聊哪些题没有搞清楚</li>
<li>老板说生活上是不是遇到了什么问题,没着我可以帮你</li>
</ul>
<h1 id="反馈事实"><a href="#反馈事实" class="headerlink" title="反馈事实"></a>反馈事实</h1><p>这些话对方不仅听着舒服,而且能给你反馈事实。具体怎么开放呢?咱们只需要记住两个关键词</p>
<ul>
<li>问题开放:不要让对方只能回答是或否,例如:像愿闻其详、展开说说、欢迎补充之类</li>
<li>让出话语权:真正的沟通高手,是让对方觉得自己很牛,主导聊天的往往是能提出问题的人,或者让别人多说的人</li>
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<ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%9B%AE%E7%9A%84"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">目的</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%90%9E%E5%AE%9A%E6%83%85%E7%BB%AA"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">搞定情绪</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%B8-%E7%BB%86%E8%8A%82"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">夸 - 细节</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%A4%B8-%E5%AF%B9%E6%AF%94"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">夸 - 对比</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%88%91%E8%83%BD%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3%E4%BD%A0%EF%BC%8C%E6%8D%A2%E6%88%91%E4%B9%9F%E7%94%9F%E6%B0%94"><span class="toc-number">2.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">我能理解你,换我也生气</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%82%A2%E4%BD%93%E5%90%8C%E6%AD%A5"><span class="toc-number">2.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">肢体同步</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%AA%E9%99%88%E8%BF%B0%E4%B8%8D%E8%AF%84%E8%AE%BA"><span class="toc-number">3.</span> <span class="toc-text">只陈述不评论</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%AF%84%E8%AE%BA%E5%89%AF%E8%AF%8D"><span class="toc-number">3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">评论副词</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%9D%E6%8C%81%E5%BC%80%E6%94%BE%E6%80%A7"><span class="toc-number">4.</span> <span class="toc-text">保持开放性</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%8F%8D%E9%A6%88%E4%BA%8B%E5%AE%9E"><span class="toc-number">5.</span> <span class="toc-text">反馈事实</span></a></li></ol>
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付鹏展望2023年下半年全球经济格局异常的利差意味着什么
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<article><p><img src="/img/mz10nq.png" alt="美债10年利差"></p>
<p>08年的金融危机或者09年是一个重要的时间节点到今年(2023年),在座各位你们将迎来第二个重要的节点,可能对于很多年轻人来讲,最好的一个时代结束了,我们所有人的下半辈子的投资,注意,也非常简单,抄巴菲特作业。</p>
<p>巴菲特刚去了日本(2011年也去了),你们就知道日本发生了什么。你看到了安倍晋三的三支箭,你看到了日本日元的大幅度的贬值。过去两年,巴菲特一直在买日本的这五大商社:三菱商社、三井物产、伊藤忠商事、住友、丸红,然后大家还看到巴菲特在过去的两年一直在买美孚和西方石油。有人说了巴菲特在赌油价上涨,我只能说如果你讲这种话的话,你金融基本没入门。</p>
<p>我想说的是任何的技术创新在某些环节中它是由资金来决定的技术人员只是其中一环。没有钱没有便宜的钱一切都是假的。所以技术的进步的背后有个很关键的因素就是钱钱多钱少钱贵钱便宜你的投资将完全不同。比如说昨天还是前天你们看到软银的孙正义基本上把所有的阿里巴巴的资金卖掉了开始往回抽回资金。我经常说包括对我自己的子女都讲一句话99%的命运和1%的努力而不是99%的努力1%的命运。大势极其的重要,这个”大势”或许也就是我们在金融市场打拼,真正能够获得的。</p>
<p>然后图上右侧我给大家放了最核心的美债利差美债利差是什么东西可以这么简单理解”全球资金的成本”。美国是一年期国债收益率和十年期国债收益率的差值主要是差值。如果懂商品期货的话你们知道我们的所有东西都有一个概念叫做当期价格和远期价格那么资金一年期可以简单理解成当期资金价格十年期你可以理解成十年拉长十年以后的资金价格。这个”一”和”十”的概念是什么十年期大概等同于经济增长。我们过去的四十年的大部分时间短期利率低于经济增长。比如说你现在干了一个企业你预期你未来的三到五年你能获得10%左右的利润,而当期银行提供给你的借贷成本只有三个点,你知道你该干嘛了吗?借便宜的钱投高息的回报。</p>
<p>本质上金融的核心除了研究经济研究长期回报以外还有个很重要的就是从哪借钱能不能借到便宜的钱能不能在便宜的钱上面借更多的钱但不是说便宜的钱就一定能够刺激起来借贷日本90年房地产泡沫破裂以后利率水平给你干到0你都不借为什么因为没有资产回报这个怎么反映在我们的全球利率上呢简单讲这个数字在0以上它代表着你现在的借贷资金成本在这你的投资回报在下头。</p>
<p>你记住一点你活多大年龄决定了你见过多大市面我们现在在中国从事金融的大部分的人有见过40年前国际市场是什么情况吗巴菲特90多了芒格明年就100了对吧用我的话说你要活到那个年龄你啥都见过了金融理念特别简单借便宜的钱去赚高息的回报就这么简单。</p>
<p>一定要喜欢危机,可能是干实体的人不喜欢,但我可以告诉你,干金融的人我们超级喜欢危机,因为每一次危机的到来将带来一次年轻人特别喜欢的机会,赌一赌,单车变摩托,赌的是什么呢?你就赌危机爆发之后,全球的政府和央行永远只会干一件事:放水降息、放水降更多的息、放更多的水降更多的息。</p>
<p>40年前平均的状态实际上就是短期利率永远高于长期经济回报这在经济学中是什么有人会说通胀、通缩其实还有一个状态大家并不喜欢”滞胀”这种状态距离我们已经40年了换句话说全球已经40年没太出现过这种情况。但对不起你们有没有想过现在或许来了它导致的我们的所有投资完全不同。</p>
<p>资金越便宜长期投资回报越稳定借越便宜的钱买更高的高息资产借更多。一旦倒过来我就请问你怎么交易银行存款五点几投所有的资产回报只有三点几我就问你大部分人会怎么做不是说就指现金在银行的才叫现金只要在当期能够产生高息回报的资金或者资产都叫现金。我举个例子比如说一个公司股息分10%它算不算高息资产它算不算高息现金它每年都给你分跟你银行存到银行每年拿5%有区别?没区别!所以说这个短期高于长期从最直觉的理解就是资金应该放在现金上。</p>
<p>为什么巴菲特买那些公司那些公司跟上面的现金奶牛ETF之间是什么关系08年金融危机后美国把基准利率水平拉得非常低09年两会口号是”做大做强金融万众创业万众创新”之后出来的小贷公司担保公司P2P对吧一连串都是在这个大的宏观背景下去搞的。09年之后你真正应该获得的只有两个收益一个卖房炒房卖房炒房、买更多的房炒更多的房。第二个投腾讯投阿里投万众创业投万众创新就这两条路。在中国你记住有些路不是自然形成的它在那个关键的节点上全是由政府这支无形的手在引导两会这个口号一提出来你一看中国居民部门属于”高储蓄低杠杆”你知道人生的机会来了。</p>
<p>真正投资的精髓不是买资产,是如何去负债。如何在钱便宜的时间点上去负债、付更多的债、如何去付更低的资金成本,然后右手才去考虑资产,很多人光想资产而不去考虑负债。</p>
<p>房价上涨就一条这个地方有没有人进来。第二这个地方进来的人能不能借更多的钱就是居民部门杠杆率。首先得有居民第二得有杠杆率如果这俩都没了这个资产基本就到头了。09年就是让他们加杠杆扛着进去的现在的经济为什么差我可以告诉你还有人说刺激咋刺激09年能刺激是因为所有的居民部门有储蓄稳定企业低负债现在是没储蓄、不稳定。更重要的是睁眼全是债简单讲年轻人杠杆加不动这才是最大的风险。核心城市核心区域除此之外都别碰因为只有这个核心俩字才能带来人。香港特首前段时间天天在广深在那晃荡的不就是邀请你们去吗但是你跟他说我没钱家里也没钱我就是个穷小子那对不起你别过来。你来我也不要因为我要你的根本是你有钱你能接得住你能加得住杠杆。我认为最核心的一个是房价到达一定程度人自然没法生隔壁韩国如此日本如此中国亦如此。中国现在的大体情况是未来的五到十年基本处在加完杠杆后还债的年代。低增长、低通胀、低利率三低。而过去的三十年中国一直是高增长高通胀、高利率。高和低之间差距是什么杠杆率到一定程度自然就定了隔壁日本就是到了极致崩了</p>
<p>老美的底层老百姓过得并不好,但老美的富人更好了,富人靠杠杆。记住一点,富人靠杠杆、靠金融资产,穷人才靠劳动力。在全球化的过程,美国居民保持的是最低的生存权利(美国底层人民)他的收入是不增长的。从1982年开始美国的数字是多少呢平均薪资增速3%金字塔的底层25%和顶层25%的薪资性收入差是1%。啥意思呢平均3%的薪资收入增长再减去1%的社会阶层差底层25%的美国居民薪资性收入仅仅是2%。大家发现这个2%是什么?正好就是美国通胀水平。啥意思呢?你可以理解,这美国的底层居民过去的二三十年薪资扣掉通胀是不增长的。</p>
<p>二十多年前索罗斯写那本联名书的时候他就给大家解释过这个话题他说中国庞大的贸易顺差去补偿了美国底层居民。举个例子一个美国人薪资2万保持不变但是呢中国生产的笔记本电脑从5000美金降到了1000美金我的购买力怎么样增强了这就是庞大的中国出口。中国出口的商品绕一圈转回来变成中国的外汇储备中国的外汇储备买的是什么买的是美债。美债用于什么了美债用于两件事打仗、给底层居民补医疗和教育。所以你就会发现。如果你做美国的底层居民的话出现什么情况呢收入没增长但是中国供应的商品的购买力降弱了这个购买力让美国人的购买力增强了。同时中国大量的顺差和外汇储备补偿了美国的教育和医疗。</p>
<p>美国真正发家致富的人都是看明白了这套游戏的。一旦底层居民薪资收入不增长我们教科书里学的货币银行学中央行双目标志将失效也就是说中央银行将永远不用去考虑薪资通胀只需要去考虑经济。此时就会产生我们现在这个模型”经济不行就降息”。每一次经济不行的时候就借更多的美元买更多的美国金融性资产。但在82年美国金融监管放开了一个重要的法案金融自由化。啥意思如果监管部门把银行管得死死的银行不许给居民加杠杆就算来了这样的机会社会也没有财富效应。但如果我此时告诉银行金融监管你们可以去创造各种各样的金融衍生产品去给居民部门加杠杆举例子房贷可以变成18种花样于是82年到2022年搞了整整40年。</p>
<p>到了02年的时候美国居民部门突然间反应过来原来富人不是靠着劳动挣钱的富人得去炒金融资产。02年小布什一句话你们得做起美国梦来。什么意思你们手上没有股票得有但问题是在于这帮穷人的美国梦是最可怕的因为他收入不增长还借了更多的房贷02年到08年的这种做法结果就是08年崩掉了。但崩掉以后美国的底层人民麻烦就大了被迫还了15年的债。从08年到现在美国居民部门一直在去杠杆还债但是你知道一个人收入不增长然后还要不停的还债他最终会转成什么欧美有两样东西会让整个社会颠覆的一个是”选票”、”上街大游行”。他的选票会转化成什么答案”特朗普”。也就是要么民粹要么你补偿我。补偿只有一个方法提高他的薪资收入。你以为真的是像宏观经济上在跟你讲说因为这场疫情导致供应链导致劳动力市场结构发生了变换那都不是核心真正的核心是当居民部门还了12年、15年债以后这部分人不想还了你要么就是更多的补偿给我、要么就是给我加薪。</p>
<p>目前美国出现的就一个结果底层通胀、顶层通缩。知道美国现在谁最惨吗美国西海岸。硅谷、洛杉矶、旧金山的富人这15年是他们加了杠杆08年后的这漫长的15年创造了我们近乎200年以来全世界最低的资金年代它也创造了全世界几乎是最大的资产。这个资产是什么虚拟资产你们知道为什么会出现虚拟性货币如果这么庞大的流动性这么便宜的资金冲向了实物资产(粮食、房子)这个价格一旦失控我们离战争就不远了。虚拟资产有个好处它仅仅消灭富人财富。西海岸的这帮我们叫美国新贵准确说叫做穷人日子很好富人日子很难受。富人中间是老钱收割新钱老钱是什么呢华盛顿、纽约、休斯顿新钱就是硅谷、洛杉矶。新钱靠的是什么科技、技术、创新。你创造一个东西带来的社会价值可能只创造了1万块。但是金融市场给予你200倍。一次性兑付了几百年的收益。这就是我们的金融市场当利率水平过低的时候它会使得所有资产的估值极高。而科技作为主要的推动力会自然而然地迎来一场高估值的泡沫。</p>
<p>干一级市场投资我可以告诉你估值泡沫出现的时候那特征都是一样的简单说瞎几把随便写PPT都能融到钱。有很多人的利益是建立在利率和资产价格上的。经济行的时候是可以承受高利率的。经济不行的时候(日本)把利率降到负都没用。</p>
<p>这四十年结束以后逻辑是什么科技肯定不行深圳科创你就搞到天上去你拉动整个社会的经济也远着呢技术的进步只有转化成全民生产率才能拉动所有人。中国现在相反是低增长、低通胀、低利率而这3低的背后是高杠杆。有一种情况可以让我们避开这种所谓的内卷型的环境就是走出去。美国在六十年代到现在不是盈利率的增长它获得的是市场份额的扩大。中国现在所有的企业会内卷的会卷得一塌糊涂原因很简单市场只有国内了。2018年开始的中美贸易战逆全球化鬼佬就是要把我们踢出去。因为不走出去我们过去的二三十年所有的产能是给全世界走配套的。如果不走出去单凭我们国内的居民部门消化不了。</p>
<p>我们国内居民部门中还出现了一个问题大部分的90后、95后是在缩的他们是在降低欲望的他们是在消费降级的。高端消费永远是给那些富人的。中产阶级的杠杆达到一定程度就会进入一个很典型的低欲望社会。跟现在比较穷的年轻人打打交道你们就会发现不结婚挺好、不生孩子挺好、这个不买房也不错、这个手机也不用换。然后这个蜜雪冰城的咖啡。虽然难喝点但还可以你。跟富二代富三代打交道就看不出来。中国现在也是典型的K字型。</p>
<p>过去四十年的游戏结束了现金远远地甩开了长期经济增长。巴菲特已经教过大家了最好的公司是什么经济好也好。经济坏也好是刚需、高股息类的公司且不受经济低迷影响的公司。你们有没有发现在最近在炒中草药为啥炒中炒药就是刚需好比通信行业的话费你必须得按月充值。所以巴菲特在买的是什么现金奶牛ETF的配置看看都是啥能源、医药、金融。这些行业就是典型的现金类资产巴菲特想获得一样东西知道是什么吗股息率美孚的几个财务数据叠加会发现第一种情况低油价、经济差它的股价上涨的。并不是巴菲特赌油价上涨。</p>
<p>全球过去40年挣100块钱只有40块钱来自于你们理解中的经济增长带来的回报有60块钱是来自于低利率加杠杆的投资回报。所以这个世界有两个投资人一个叫长期价值投资回报就是获得经济增长带来的贴现。另外一个就是获得利率波动带来的加杠杆房子准确说典型的就是杠杆性资产如果房住不炒那理论上它是没有价格波动的。</p>
<p>今年是蹦了一个ChatGPT明年还必定还会有个啥的。当然我只想说一句当你听到今年AI的时候你们还记得去年大明湖畔的元宇宙吗你们还记得十年前的互联网加万物吗过去几年全球利率低咱们可以你炒一波咱们给90后90后炒一波给95后95后炒一波给00后然后全球流动性一收咱们把00后挂到高位上。为什么是这个路径越年轻的越信技术他们认为技术能改变世界结果世界会残酷地教育你。技术能不能改变世界但绝对不是炒技术炒技术改变不了世界。</p>
<p>从去年十一月份所有的主题性投资只能这样炒当你想给90后的时候你发现90后的元宇宙还没解套呢90后借不来更多的钱所以周期会非常短迅速炒迅速落。可人民币现在利率这么低为什么会没有钱呢因为所有科技性投资不是跟着人民币利率走的。比如ChatGPT是海外现有了这个东西国内跟风元宇宙亦然新能源汽车也是现有了特斯拉。中国在技术方面采取的战略是摸着石头过河、黑猫白猫带着老鼠就行。所以我们会出现一种情况海外有个热点我们马上跟。那问题就来了你的估值怎么定价做过一级市场投资的投资某家企业的时候对标物是美国某某企业。美股最强大的地方是把所有创新的Top级的领军人物均以美元定价导致的一个结果就是它是锚定价了所有估值水平。如果人民币能对资产估值有影响那就必须要求投这家企业的对标物是在中国上市。</p>
<p>能挣钱的企业就是好企业?像国内某企业家讲的,我五年不给你分红,你能把我咋滴?这种企业就不是好企业。挣钱分钱,经济不好的时候能力还继续挣钱,这就是它的垄断性。所以你们会发现,别瞧不起老钱,老钱投的上游。改革开放之后,煤炭、电力、很多行业都是允许民营企业介入的,到现在为止我就请问,这些上游还有民营企业吗?</p>
<p>回到日本的商社,跟中国国有企业本质是一样,它是家庭组织,不由董事会左右。巴菲特去了以后,和高管和家族的人员就谈了一个事,你是现金奶牛,因为它控制了全球的上游。所以在经济不好的时候,日本的五大商社就是中国的国有企业,也是美国的能源企业。能挣钱、有利润,然后有大量的自由现金流。它唯一的问题是:”公司治理”,就是它不一定愿意给你分。现在股息率快到五了,你不分,我就把公司买成我的,然后日本人说的就是:巴菲特先生,你别把我控制,我愿意分钱给你。因此巴菲特干的事情,买了日本的这些高股息的资产,并且在日本发行了无抵押担保的日元债券。啥意思呢?巴菲特一毛钱没掏,用日本人的储蓄以及低利率水平借钱,买了日本人的资产,还强迫日本人分了高股息,这才是资本真正的收割。</p>
<p>未来的5年是10年真正的游戏是如何借低息买高息。美元不便宜了但美元的高息依旧很吸引人。那么问题就来了谁是低息美元如果一直维持高增长高通胀、高利率的话人民币一定是贬值的。而倒过来的交易借人民币转高息资产这个高息资产可以是人民币里边不多有的高息资产也可以是全球范围内的高股息现金奶牛你会发现这就又形成了类似于15年前的套利资本流动、交易机会。</p>
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<article><p>为什么会有中美贸易战?为什么会有特朗普?他们手上有个重要的东西,选票。法国人民手上有个重要的东西,什么东西?公会。财富分配,到最后是需要权力去平衡的,也就简单讲,富者恒富,穷者不富的时候,他手上会用一个最简单东西投出民粹主义的路线,就是选票。哪个领导人愿意带著我们把工资从十块钱降到二十,我就选他。有两种做法:第一种,让企业吐回来。第二种,让中国吐回来。中国拿走的劳动收入增速,现在要吐回来,这就是逆全球化。企业部门拿走的高杠杆,高负债,获得的财富积累要吐回来。然后你就会发现,他的收入增速上来,他会长期的怎么样?通胀。利率水平增高,导致企业部门(美国制造业)变差,其实就是代表著美国的左右两边。</p>
<p>在这种背景下,既然不能从市场层面上获得收入增速,就得从你自身提高收入增速,答案是什么?技术进步。现在工人工资我是压不下去了,怎么办?三个工人变两工人+机器人。所以你猜美国现在在干嘛右侧是这帮企业左侧是美国的这帮中底层的这些老百姓小日子过得太Happy了。左侧这帮企业收入增速7.5通胀5个点。开心吧挣的钱存到银行现在5个点开心吧然后08年美国次贷危机破裂了以后美国锁定在了0-0.25的这个低息区域老百姓买了低息贷款的房子储蓄多了开心吧中国出口的赚买了美国国债相当于还要回储给你们最后发现美国挣得多、存的多、债务还低。从08年到23年这15年就相当于去了15年的杠杆。企业部门要借贷5.25的利率高于目前3点几的增速被迫进入到利润下降未来要提高增长只有一个方案就是技术进步。</p>
<p>硅谷大裁员是不影响就业的这帮生产率高的人转化再就业的能力是极强的。生产率低的人出现大规模失业才是最麻烦的。简单讲美国这帮黑人们如果全都失业了那美国就完了。08年后企业银行居民这三者的分配关系就有问题了一直拖到现在已经无解了。全世界从过去的十年只有一个大的变量”技术进步”。我个人有一种感觉当前的这个时间点在炒的人工智能跟过去的十年浮现出来的不太一样。美国股市现在就那几个科技公司拉着每股涨是好事。几家公司是在5.25的利率环境下拉动每股涨的。它不是那个0到0.25的利率拉动的能够扛得住资金成本5到5.25还能带来增长意味著AI可能是真的。</p>
<p>08年到2028年整20年的周期足够一个新技术带动全社会变动了这几家公司可能在未来3到5年拉着美股创新高 继续创新高。后面的涨是正儿八经的生产率提高的涨,前两年是啥?是低利率推著泡沫在涨。如果美国完成了这条线,既保证了企业在技术进步下维持高利润增长,又保证底层居民获得了高收入增速,你猜美国的利率会是什么情况?他的利率会一直很高,进入到高增长、高通胀、高利率,三高。</p>
<p>那么中国会事什么情况?美国不给技术,转化生产也不是中国制造了,逆全球化嘛!国内会低增长、低通胀、低利率。从全球分工来看,美国底层是技术研发,中间生产,下面是市场。如果生产环节不给中国,高端制造给谁?大概率是日本。</p>
<p>日本的全球分工的角色会跟过去的二三十年不一样英国的老牌家族的基金家族办公开始跑到日本租办公室招人了二三十年前的时候跑到香港租办公室招人跑到北京设立办事处为什么答案只有一个看好该国未来20年30年的增长。</p>
<p>在过去的20年发展过程中我们的生产环节是针对全世界的如果出不去。只能转化成内需。我们的一个大问题出来了过去的10年中国经济最大的不同就是现在的年轻人债务过高内需是背著重重的负债前行的有一些人不准备生人再去背了。直到疫情过恢复以后到现在为止不缺生产缺谁买单。内需要么是政府部门要么是居民部门一个是投资不动一个消费不动有钱的有钱死没钱的负债死。昨天我看又新能源车下乡了然后你去看看那个评论区90后崛起了不像十年前那么好骗了他们咋回答呢啥好事都想著我们农村人。十年前什么家电下乡卖不掉的冰箱……就是电器卖给我们农村人这韭菜不能照着一个地儿割啊。</p>
<p>笃定了老美不会给我们这条科技树所以经济当前压根就不是我们最大的问题只要能守住底线也就是你的居民仍然是可爱的人底线思维即可。当下最大的目标是重建这个秩序美国不带我玩我就去拉着ABC去重构这种国际分工、全球化市场结构重构我们的科技树。中国现在的投资跟老美一样都在反映科技树但是”市场决定的科技树(市场经济)”和”政府主导的科技树(计划经济)”结局是不一样的。所以低增长、低利率的国内必须要点科技树,但体现在股票上,国内是什么光景,美股是什么光景?</p>
<p>很多人说A股弱美股强因为人家现在高增长、高通胀、高利率、和消费市场。08年之后。老美去了15年杠杆。居民部门老老实实还了15年的债日本人老老实实还了30年。美国的利率水平绝对不再是以前的路径不再会靠降息加杠杆的方式去推动增长而是要靠生产校长的扩张技术在两三年后我们有可能会迎来一个”iPhone时刻”。</p>
<p>我们现在所有人依旧想的是如果企业不行最终还得是降息。美国会出现一种情况就是企业的技术进步把它带上去整个美元的长短端利率都在5-5.25那我就请问你光现金和资产回报都5-5.25了你觉得黄金会奔三千四千五千吗黄金的之所以在高价因为长期利率在地位加上杠杆但是如果长短端的投资回报率在5-5.25,你还会持有黄金吗?</p>
<p>08年金融危机以后老美痛定思痛开始在极低的利率下去除杠杆也就是讲现在你看见的美国是08年的美国导致的一个结果。而08年的中国在干什么呢所有人熟知的叫四万亿(可不止),总结一句话,就是给居民部门加杠杆。中国拖起了全球经济,代价是这一代居民部门的储蓄和杠杆,就是老百姓讲的掏空了几个钱包。</p>
<p>真正的大交易者用什么东西做负债用什么东西当资产。如果现在世界格局是这样请问我们个人该怎么办举个例子我09年回国2010年开始到2016年股灾人民币单边每年升值3%美元官方利率0到0.2%加上手续费美元借款资金成本大约2%。就造成了实际借美元利率是-1%,那时候北上广的房价是多少?房子的背后就是人口、收入、杠杆,而其中最重要的吗,在当时,不是人口、也不是收入,而是杠杆。我的借贷成本如果-1%的话,这不就是热钱吗?借-1%的钱来中国就好了,干什么东西,买房呗!</p>
<p>所以放到现在的今天个人该怎么办呢美国进入到三高的状态中国进入到这种三低的状态。当下经营贷3.2%人民币贬值实际人民币借贷成就是负的所以答案就是人民币长期利率水平会非常的低借贷低息的人民币人民币贬值官方的借贷成本会从3个点掉到2个点并且维持在2个点三到五年让你借贷人民币的真实利率一定在0以下。所以从大交易者的角度负债解决了资产端该买啥能够给你二字头融资成本一定说明国内的资产端没有高息回报我们不出境去哪儿找高息的资产我偷偷摸摸告诉大家过一段时间你们会发现某个类型的ETF手续费还会增加什么东西用人民币结算但是持有的是境外高息资产(QDII)美国光银行存款利率在5%你该干嘛你们会发现巴菲特买的西方石油公司、买的日本的五大商社股息率在10以上你们知道该干嘛如果这个东西一直是这样倒着咱们哪来的信心觉得外资会流入</p>
<p>所以这就是一个重要的分水岭,这个最核心的原理理解,超级的重要!绝对对你后面三五年巨大的受益。</p>
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改掉选择困难症
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<article><p>对模糊零容忍。换句话说,就是想尽一切办法让自己找出那个最重要的、唯一的选项,让自己在某一个时间段里只有一条路可以走。如果不在这些选择的节点想清楚,我们就会陷入模糊的状态,它会使我们产生本能的反应——娱乐。因为,即时满足,避难趋易,是我们的天性</p>
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<article><p>分心开小差,很多人感觉可能不是个问题,甚至还对自己的一心二用而感觉沾沾自喜。比如跑步的时候考虑明后天的安排,吃饭的时候在担忧与他人的关系,睡觉的时候思绪像瀑布一样倾泻而出,是我们在不知不觉中徒生烦恼、渐生愚钝。从某种意义上来说,它是我们烦恼低效的来源,因为无法专注。</p>
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<article><p>心理学有个史诗级的剧作叫做非暴力沟通,它能让一个人温柔而坚定的去说服对方。非暴力沟通大白话讲就是对他人足够的尊重,换取他人对你一次积极倾听的机会,所以这个技巧的核心是怎么做到尊重。一共分为四步</p>
<p>1.表达事实而非评价比如把你怎么这么不靠谱改成你今天开会迟到了10分钟。<br>2.表达情绪而非想法:比如把你一点都不在乎我,改成你这样做我很伤心。<br>3.表达需求而非指责:比如把这点小事都做不好,改成这个小事,我们以后不要再犯了。<br>4.表达请求而非命令:比如把没做完不许下班,改成下班前可以先给我一个初版?</p>
<p>所以还记得开头那句话吗?温柔是对他人尊重,而坚定是保护自己不被伤害,愿你温柔而坚定</p>
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<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/25/front-end/verdaccio/"> <a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/finance/%E4%BB%98%E9%B9%8F%EF%BC%9A%E5%B1%95%E6%9C%9B2023%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%8A%E5%B9%B4%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E6%A0%BC%E5%B1%80%EF%BC%8C%E5%BC%82%E5%B8%B8%E7%9A%84%E5%88%A9%E5%B7%AE%E6%84%8F%E5%91%B3%E7%9D%80%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88/">
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<span>付鹏展望2023年下半年全球经济格局异常的利差意味着什么</span>
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08年的金融危机或者09年是一个重要的时间节点到今年(2023年),在座各位你们将迎来第二个重要的节点,可能对于很多年轻人来讲,最好的一个时代结束了,我们所有人的下半辈子的投资,注意,也非常简...</p>
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<span>付鹏:逆全球化下的全球资产配置</span>
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<p>为什么会有中美贸易战?为什么会有特朗普?他们手上有个重要的东西,选票。法国人民手上有个重要的东西,什么东西?公会。财富分配,到最后是需要权力去平衡的,也就简单讲,富者恒富,穷者不富的时候,他手上会用一...</p>
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<span>内部循环与产出意识</span>
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<p>每天早起、跑步、读书、学习,身体和心灵都在路上,然而这些都是内部循环,不直接对外产出,坚持这些习惯可以让我们成为更好的人,但不会成为更厉害的人。享受努力奋斗的同时,必须要有作品产出,参与到社会价值体系...</p>
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<span>10-24 09:47:38</span>
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<span>有效对话指南</span>
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<p>卡耐基说过:要说服别人同意你的观点,你就要让他觉得这是他自己的观点。也就是说,本质上没有人真正被别人说服,听或者不听都是他们自己的主动选择
目的沟通目的无非两个:
让对方认同我们的观点
或者按我们说...</p>
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<span>11-06 13:19:41</span>
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<span>烦恼的原因</span>
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<p>分心开小差,很多人感觉可能不是个问题,甚至还对自己的一心二用而感觉沾沾自喜。比如跑步的时候考虑明后天的安排,吃饭的时候在担忧与他人的关系,睡觉的时候思绪像瀑布一样倾泻而出,是我们在不知不觉中徒生烦恼、...</p>
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<span>11-06 13:19:17</span>
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<span>改掉选择困难症</span>
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<p>对模糊零容忍。换句话说,就是想尽一切办法让自己找出那个最重要的、唯一的选项,让自己在某一个时间段里只有一条路可以走。如果不在这些选择的节点想清楚,我们就会陷入模糊的状态,它会使我们产生本能的反应——娱...</p>
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<span>11-06 13:20:01</span>
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<span>走神</span>
</div>
<p>走神可以让我们活在任何时候,唯独不能活在当下。分心走神的原因,无非”当下太无聊、当下太痛苦”,因为身体受困于现实,只好让神思天马行空!
...</p>
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<span>11-06 13:18:46</span>
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<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>非暴力沟通</span>
</div>
<p>心理学有个史诗级的剧作叫做非暴力沟通,它能让一个人温柔而坚定的去说服对方。非暴力沟通大白话讲就是对他人足够的尊重,换取他人对你一次积极倾听的机会,所以这个技巧的核心是怎么做到尊重。一共分为四步
1.表...</p>
</div>
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<span>10-20 10:25:55</span>
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<li class=""> <li class="">
<a href="/categories/Front-End/"> <a href="/categories/Finance/">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M20 4l-2 14.5l-6 2l-6-2L4 4z"></path><path d="M7.5 8h3v8l-2-1"></path><path d="M16.5 8H14a.5.5 0 0 0-.5.5v3a.5.5 0 0 0 .5.5h1.423a.5.5 0 0 1 .495.57L15.5 15.5l-2 .5"></path></g></svg> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M20 4l-2 14.5l-6 2l-6-2L4 4z"></path><path d="M7.5 8h3v8l-2-1"></path><path d="M16.5 8H14a.5.5 0 0 0-.5.5v3a.5.5 0 0 0 .5.5h1.423a.5.5 0 0 1 .495.57L15.5 15.5l-2 .5"></path></g></svg>
<div class="ellipsis">
<span>
Finance
</span>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li class="">
<a href="/categories/Front-End/">
<div class="ellipsis"> <div class="ellipsis">
<span> <span>
Front-End Front-End
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@ -250,9 +309,9 @@
<ul class="timeline"> <ul class="timeline">
<li> <li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/25/A%20Guide%20to%20Effective%20Dialogue/"> <a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/A%20Guide%20to%20Effective%20Dialogue/">
<div class="timeline-info"> <div class="timeline-info">
<span>10-25 22:37:25</span> <span>11-06 13:25:00</span>
</div> </div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div> <div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content"> <div class="timeline-content">
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</li> </li>
<li> <li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/04/Cosy-Starter-Guide/"> <a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/23/Cosy-Starter-Guide/">
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<span>11-04 14:33:24</span> <span>10-23 12:01:13</span>
</div> </div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div> <div class="timeline-marker"></div>
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</li> </li>
<li> <li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/25/Markdown%20Sample/"> <a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/23/Markdown%20Sample/">
<div class="timeline-info"> <div class="timeline-info">
<span>10-25 22:37:25</span> <span>10-23 12:01:13</span>
</div> </div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div> <div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content"> <div class="timeline-content">
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</li> </li>
<li> <li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/25/front-end/verdaccio/"> <a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/finance/%E4%BB%98%E9%B9%8F%EF%BC%9A%E5%B1%95%E6%9C%9B2023%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%8A%E5%B9%B4%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E6%A0%BC%E5%B1%80%EF%BC%8C%E5%BC%82%E5%B8%B8%E7%9A%84%E5%88%A9%E5%B7%AE%E6%84%8F%E5%91%B3%E7%9D%80%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88/">
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<span>10-25 22:37:25</span> <span>11-06 13:14:30</span>
</div>
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<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>付鹏展望2023年下半年全球经济格局异常的利差意味着什么</span>
</div>
<p>
08年的金融危机或者09年是一个重要的时间节点到今年(2023年),在座各位你们将迎来第二个重要的节点,可能对于很多年轻人来讲,最好的一个时代结束了,我们所有人的下半辈子的投资,注意,也非常简...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/finance/%E4%BB%98%E9%B9%8F%EF%BC%9A%E9%80%86%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E5%8C%96%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%E9%85%8D%E7%BD%AE/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>11-06 13:17:08</span>
</div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content">
<div class="timeline-title">
<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>付鹏:逆全球化下的全球资产配置</span>
</div>
<p>为什么会有中美贸易战?为什么会有特朗普?他们手上有个重要的东西,选票。法国人民手上有个重要的东西,什么东西?公会。财富分配,到最后是需要权力去平衡的,也就简单讲,富者恒富,穷者不富的时候,他手上会用一...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E5%86%85%E9%83%A8%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E4%BA%A7%E5%87%BA%E6%84%8F%E8%AF%86/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>11-06 13:18:22</span>
</div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content">
<div class="timeline-title">
<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>内部循环与产出意识</span>
</div>
<p>每天早起、跑步、读书、学习,身体和心灵都在路上,然而这些都是内部循环,不直接对外产出,坚持这些习惯可以让我们成为更好的人,但不会成为更厉害的人。享受努力奋斗的同时,必须要有作品产出,参与到社会价值体系...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/24/social/%E6%9C%89%E6%95%88%E5%AF%B9%E8%AF%9D%E6%8C%87%E5%8D%97/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>10-24 09:47:38</span>
</div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content">
<div class="timeline-title">
<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>有效对话指南</span>
</div>
<p>卡耐基说过:要说服别人同意你的观点,你就要让他觉得这是他自己的观点。也就是说,本质上没有人真正被别人说服,听或者不听都是他们自己的主动选择
目的沟通目的无非两个:
让对方认同我们的观点
或者按我们说...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E7%83%A6%E6%81%BC%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>11-06 13:19:41</span>
</div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content">
<div class="timeline-title">
<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>烦恼的原因</span>
</div>
<p>分心开小差,很多人感觉可能不是个问题,甚至还对自己的一心二用而感觉沾沾自喜。比如跑步的时候考虑明后天的安排,吃饭的时候在担忧与他人的关系,睡觉的时候思绪像瀑布一样倾泻而出,是我们在不知不觉中徒生烦恼、...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E6%94%B9%E6%8E%89%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9%E5%9B%B0%E9%9A%BE%E7%97%87/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>11-06 13:19:17</span>
</div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content">
<div class="timeline-title">
<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>改掉选择困难症</span>
</div>
<p>对模糊零容忍。换句话说,就是想尽一切办法让自己找出那个最重要的、唯一的选项,让自己在某一个时间段里只有一条路可以走。如果不在这些选择的节点想清楚,我们就会陷入模糊的状态,它会使我们产生本能的反应——娱...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E8%B5%B0%E7%A5%9E/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>11-06 13:20:01</span>
</div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content">
<div class="timeline-title">
<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>走神</span>
</div>
<p>走神可以让我们活在任何时候,唯独不能活在当下。分心走神的原因,无非”当下太无聊、当下太痛苦”,因为身体受困于现实,只好让神思天马行空!
...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E9%9D%9E%E6%9A%B4%E5%8A%9B%E6%B2%9F%E9%80%9A/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>11-06 13:18:46</span>
</div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content">
<div class="timeline-title">
<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>非暴力沟通</span>
</div>
<p>心理学有个史诗级的剧作叫做非暴力沟通,它能让一个人温柔而坚定的去说服对方。非暴力沟通大白话讲就是对他人足够的尊重,换取他人对你一次积极倾听的机会,所以这个技巧的核心是怎么做到尊重。一共分为四步
1.表...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/20/front-end/verdaccio/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>10-20 10:25:55</span>
</div> </div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div> <div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content"> <div class="timeline-content">

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</li> </li>
<li class=""> <li class="">
<a href="/categories/Front-End/"> <a href="/categories/Finance/">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M20 4l-2 14.5l-6 2l-6-2L4 4z"></path><path d="M7.5 8h3v8l-2-1"></path><path d="M16.5 8H14a.5.5 0 0 0-.5.5v3a.5.5 0 0 0 .5.5h1.423a.5.5 0 0 1 .495.57L15.5 15.5l-2 .5"></path></g></svg> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M20 4l-2 14.5l-6 2l-6-2L4 4z"></path><path d="M7.5 8h3v8l-2-1"></path><path d="M16.5 8H14a.5.5 0 0 0-.5.5v3a.5.5 0 0 0 .5.5h1.423a.5.5 0 0 1 .495.57L15.5 15.5l-2 .5"></path></g></svg>
<div class="ellipsis">
<span>
Finance
</span>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li class="">
<a href="/categories/Front-End/">
<div class="ellipsis"> <div class="ellipsis">
<span> <span>
Front-End Front-End
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@ -250,9 +309,9 @@
<ul class="timeline"> <ul class="timeline">
<li> <li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/25/A%20Guide%20to%20Effective%20Dialogue/"> <a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/A%20Guide%20to%20Effective%20Dialogue/">
<div class="timeline-info"> <div class="timeline-info">
<span>10-25 22:37:25</span> <span>11-06 13:25:00</span>
</div> </div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div> <div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content"> <div class="timeline-content">
@ -272,9 +331,9 @@
</li> </li>
<li> <li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/04/Cosy-Starter-Guide/"> <a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/23/Cosy-Starter-Guide/">
<div class="timeline-info"> <div class="timeline-info">
<span>11-04 14:33:24</span> <span>10-23 12:01:13</span>
</div> </div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div> <div class="timeline-marker"></div>
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</li> </li>
<li> <li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/25/Markdown%20Sample/"> <a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/23/Markdown%20Sample/">
<div class="timeline-info"> <div class="timeline-info">
<span>10-25 22:37:25</span> <span>10-23 12:01:13</span>
</div> </div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div> <div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content"> <div class="timeline-content">
@ -310,9 +369,160 @@ Heading 1 link Heading linkHeading 2 link Heading linkHeading 3 link Heading ...
</li> </li>
<li> <li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/25/front-end/verdaccio/"> <a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/finance/%E4%BB%98%E9%B9%8F%EF%BC%9A%E5%B1%95%E6%9C%9B2023%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%8A%E5%B9%B4%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E6%A0%BC%E5%B1%80%EF%BC%8C%E5%BC%82%E5%B8%B8%E7%9A%84%E5%88%A9%E5%B7%AE%E6%84%8F%E5%91%B3%E7%9D%80%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88/">
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<span>10-25 22:37:25</span> <span>11-06 13:14:30</span>
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<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>付鹏展望2023年下半年全球经济格局异常的利差意味着什么</span>
</div>
<p>
08年的金融危机或者09年是一个重要的时间节点到今年(2023年),在座各位你们将迎来第二个重要的节点,可能对于很多年轻人来讲,最好的一个时代结束了,我们所有人的下半辈子的投资,注意,也非常简...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/finance/%E4%BB%98%E9%B9%8F%EF%BC%9A%E9%80%86%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E5%8C%96%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%E9%85%8D%E7%BD%AE/">
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<span>11-06 13:17:08</span>
</div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content">
<div class="timeline-title">
<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>付鹏:逆全球化下的全球资产配置</span>
</div>
<p>为什么会有中美贸易战?为什么会有特朗普?他们手上有个重要的东西,选票。法国人民手上有个重要的东西,什么东西?公会。财富分配,到最后是需要权力去平衡的,也就简单讲,富者恒富,穷者不富的时候,他手上会用一...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E5%86%85%E9%83%A8%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E4%BA%A7%E5%87%BA%E6%84%8F%E8%AF%86/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>11-06 13:18:22</span>
</div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content">
<div class="timeline-title">
<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>内部循环与产出意识</span>
</div>
<p>每天早起、跑步、读书、学习,身体和心灵都在路上,然而这些都是内部循环,不直接对外产出,坚持这些习惯可以让我们成为更好的人,但不会成为更厉害的人。享受努力奋斗的同时,必须要有作品产出,参与到社会价值体系...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/24/social/%E6%9C%89%E6%95%88%E5%AF%B9%E8%AF%9D%E6%8C%87%E5%8D%97/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>10-24 09:47:38</span>
</div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content">
<div class="timeline-title">
<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>有效对话指南</span>
</div>
<p>卡耐基说过:要说服别人同意你的观点,你就要让他觉得这是他自己的观点。也就是说,本质上没有人真正被别人说服,听或者不听都是他们自己的主动选择
目的沟通目的无非两个:
让对方认同我们的观点
或者按我们说...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E7%83%A6%E6%81%BC%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0/">
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<span>11-06 13:19:41</span>
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<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>烦恼的原因</span>
</div>
<p>分心开小差,很多人感觉可能不是个问题,甚至还对自己的一心二用而感觉沾沾自喜。比如跑步的时候考虑明后天的安排,吃饭的时候在担忧与他人的关系,睡觉的时候思绪像瀑布一样倾泻而出,是我们在不知不觉中徒生烦恼、...</p>
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<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E6%94%B9%E6%8E%89%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9%E5%9B%B0%E9%9A%BE%E7%97%87/">
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<span>11-06 13:19:17</span>
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<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>改掉选择困难症</span>
</div>
<p>对模糊零容忍。换句话说,就是想尽一切办法让自己找出那个最重要的、唯一的选项,让自己在某一个时间段里只有一条路可以走。如果不在这些选择的节点想清楚,我们就会陷入模糊的状态,它会使我们产生本能的反应——娱...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E8%B5%B0%E7%A5%9E/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>11-06 13:20:01</span>
</div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content">
<div class="timeline-title">
<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>走神</span>
</div>
<p>走神可以让我们活在任何时候,唯独不能活在当下。分心走神的原因,无非”当下太无聊、当下太痛苦”,因为身体受困于现实,只好让神思天马行空!
...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E9%9D%9E%E6%9A%B4%E5%8A%9B%E6%B2%9F%E9%80%9A/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>11-06 13:18:46</span>
</div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content">
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<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>非暴力沟通</span>
</div>
<p>心理学有个史诗级的剧作叫做非暴力沟通,它能让一个人温柔而坚定的去说服对方。非暴力沟通大白话讲就是对他人足够的尊重,换取他人对你一次积极倾听的机会,所以这个技巧的核心是怎么做到尊重。一共分为四步
1.表...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/20/front-end/verdaccio/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>10-20 10:25:55</span>
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<h2>2023</h2>
<ul class="timeline">
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<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/A%20Guide%20to%20Effective%20Dialogue/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>11-06 13:25:00</span>
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<span>有效对话指南</span>
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<p>卡耐基说过:要说服别人同意你的观点,你就要让他觉得这是他自己的观点。也就是说,本质上没有人真正被别人说服,听或者不听都是他们自己的主动选择
目的沟通目的无非两个:
让对方认同我们的观点
或者按我们说...</p>
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</a>
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<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/23/Cosy-Starter-Guide/">
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<span>10-23 12:01:13</span>
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<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="In Progress"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M4 20h4L18.5 9.5a1.5 1.5 0 0 0-4-4L4 16v4"></path><path d="M13.5 6.5l4 4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>Cosy 入门</span>
</div>
<p>Hexo 安装主题Hexo 主题的安装方式非常简单,只需将主题 Hexo-theme-cosy 复制目录的 themes 目录下,然后在 Hexo 的 _config.yml 中修改下主题配置即可
#...</p>
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<span>10-23 12:01:13</span>
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<p>Linear Markdown Sample
Heading 1 link Heading linkHeading 2 link Heading linkHeading 3 link Heading ...</p>
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<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/finance/%E4%BB%98%E9%B9%8F%EF%BC%9A%E5%B1%95%E6%9C%9B2023%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%8A%E5%B9%B4%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E6%A0%BC%E5%B1%80%EF%BC%8C%E5%BC%82%E5%B8%B8%E7%9A%84%E5%88%A9%E5%B7%AE%E6%84%8F%E5%91%B3%E7%9D%80%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88/">
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<span>11-06 13:14:30</span>
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<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>付鹏展望2023年下半年全球经济格局异常的利差意味着什么</span>
</div>
<p>
08年的金融危机或者09年是一个重要的时间节点到今年(2023年),在座各位你们将迎来第二个重要的节点,可能对于很多年轻人来讲,最好的一个时代结束了,我们所有人的下半辈子的投资,注意,也非常简...</p>
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<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/finance/%E4%BB%98%E9%B9%8F%EF%BC%9A%E9%80%86%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E5%8C%96%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%E9%85%8D%E7%BD%AE/">
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<span>11-06 13:17:08</span>
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<span>付鹏:逆全球化下的全球资产配置</span>
</div>
<p>为什么会有中美贸易战?为什么会有特朗普?他们手上有个重要的东西,选票。法国人民手上有个重要的东西,什么东西?公会。财富分配,到最后是需要权力去平衡的,也就简单讲,富者恒富,穷者不富的时候,他手上会用一...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E5%86%85%E9%83%A8%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E4%BA%A7%E5%87%BA%E6%84%8F%E8%AF%86/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>11-06 13:18:22</span>
</div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content">
<div class="timeline-title">
<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>内部循环与产出意识</span>
</div>
<p>每天早起、跑步、读书、学习,身体和心灵都在路上,然而这些都是内部循环,不直接对外产出,坚持这些习惯可以让我们成为更好的人,但不会成为更厉害的人。享受努力奋斗的同时,必须要有作品产出,参与到社会价值体系...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/24/social/%E6%9C%89%E6%95%88%E5%AF%B9%E8%AF%9D%E6%8C%87%E5%8D%97/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>10-24 09:47:38</span>
</div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content">
<div class="timeline-title">
<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>有效对话指南</span>
</div>
<p>卡耐基说过:要说服别人同意你的观点,你就要让他觉得这是他自己的观点。也就是说,本质上没有人真正被别人说服,听或者不听都是他们自己的主动选择
目的沟通目的无非两个:
让对方认同我们的观点
或者按我们说...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E7%83%A6%E6%81%BC%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>11-06 13:19:41</span>
</div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content">
<div class="timeline-title">
<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>烦恼的原因</span>
</div>
<p>分心开小差,很多人感觉可能不是个问题,甚至还对自己的一心二用而感觉沾沾自喜。比如跑步的时候考虑明后天的安排,吃饭的时候在担忧与他人的关系,睡觉的时候思绪像瀑布一样倾泻而出,是我们在不知不觉中徒生烦恼、...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E6%94%B9%E6%8E%89%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9%E5%9B%B0%E9%9A%BE%E7%97%87/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>11-06 13:19:17</span>
</div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content">
<div class="timeline-title">
<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>改掉选择困难症</span>
</div>
<p>对模糊零容忍。换句话说,就是想尽一切办法让自己找出那个最重要的、唯一的选项,让自己在某一个时间段里只有一条路可以走。如果不在这些选择的节点想清楚,我们就会陷入模糊的状态,它会使我们产生本能的反应——娱...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E8%B5%B0%E7%A5%9E/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>11-06 13:20:01</span>
</div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content">
<div class="timeline-title">
<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>走神</span>
</div>
<p>走神可以让我们活在任何时候,唯独不能活在当下。分心走神的原因,无非”当下太无聊、当下太痛苦”,因为身体受困于现实,只好让神思天马行空!
...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E9%9D%9E%E6%9A%B4%E5%8A%9B%E6%B2%9F%E9%80%9A/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>11-06 13:18:46</span>
</div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content">
<div class="timeline-title">
<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>非暴力沟通</span>
</div>
<p>心理学有个史诗级的剧作叫做非暴力沟通,它能让一个人温柔而坚定的去说服对方。非暴力沟通大白话讲就是对他人足够的尊重,换取他人对你一次积极倾听的机会,所以这个技巧的核心是怎么做到尊重。一共分为四步
1.表...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/20/front-end/verdaccio/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>10-20 10:25:55</span>
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<span>verdaccio 搭建 npm私库</span>
</div>
<p>使用 docker 搭建 verdaccio创建 &amp;amp; 配置config.yaml文件
# Read about the best practices
# https://verdaccio.o...</p>
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Finance
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@ -250,9 +309,9 @@
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<span>10-25 22:37:25</span> <span>11-06 13:25:00</span>
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<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/25/front-end/verdaccio/"> <a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/finance/%E4%BB%98%E9%B9%8F%EF%BC%9A%E5%B1%95%E6%9C%9B2023%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%8A%E5%B9%B4%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E6%A0%BC%E5%B1%80%EF%BC%8C%E5%BC%82%E5%B8%B8%E7%9A%84%E5%88%A9%E5%B7%AE%E6%84%8F%E5%91%B3%E7%9D%80%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88/">
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<span>10-25 22:37:25</span> <span>11-06 13:14:30</span>
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<span>付鹏展望2023年下半年全球经济格局异常的利差意味着什么</span>
</div>
<p>
08年的金融危机或者09年是一个重要的时间节点到今年(2023年),在座各位你们将迎来第二个重要的节点,可能对于很多年轻人来讲,最好的一个时代结束了,我们所有人的下半辈子的投资,注意,也非常简...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/finance/%E4%BB%98%E9%B9%8F%EF%BC%9A%E9%80%86%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E5%8C%96%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%E9%85%8D%E7%BD%AE/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>11-06 13:17:08</span>
</div>
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<div class="timeline-content">
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<span>付鹏:逆全球化下的全球资产配置</span>
</div>
<p>为什么会有中美贸易战?为什么会有特朗普?他们手上有个重要的东西,选票。法国人民手上有个重要的东西,什么东西?公会。财富分配,到最后是需要权力去平衡的,也就简单讲,富者恒富,穷者不富的时候,他手上会用一...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E5%86%85%E9%83%A8%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E4%BA%A7%E5%87%BA%E6%84%8F%E8%AF%86/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>11-06 13:18:22</span>
</div>
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<div class="timeline-content">
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<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>内部循环与产出意识</span>
</div>
<p>每天早起、跑步、读书、学习,身体和心灵都在路上,然而这些都是内部循环,不直接对外产出,坚持这些习惯可以让我们成为更好的人,但不会成为更厉害的人。享受努力奋斗的同时,必须要有作品产出,参与到社会价值体系...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/24/social/%E6%9C%89%E6%95%88%E5%AF%B9%E8%AF%9D%E6%8C%87%E5%8D%97/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>10-24 09:47:38</span>
</div>
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<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>有效对话指南</span>
</div>
<p>卡耐基说过:要说服别人同意你的观点,你就要让他觉得这是他自己的观点。也就是说,本质上没有人真正被别人说服,听或者不听都是他们自己的主动选择
目的沟通目的无非两个:
让对方认同我们的观点
或者按我们说...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E7%83%A6%E6%81%BC%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0/">
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<span>11-06 13:19:41</span>
</div>
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<div class="timeline-content">
<div class="timeline-title">
<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>烦恼的原因</span>
</div>
<p>分心开小差,很多人感觉可能不是个问题,甚至还对自己的一心二用而感觉沾沾自喜。比如跑步的时候考虑明后天的安排,吃饭的时候在担忧与他人的关系,睡觉的时候思绪像瀑布一样倾泻而出,是我们在不知不觉中徒生烦恼、...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E6%94%B9%E6%8E%89%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9%E5%9B%B0%E9%9A%BE%E7%97%87/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>11-06 13:19:17</span>
</div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content">
<div class="timeline-title">
<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>改掉选择困难症</span>
</div>
<p>对模糊零容忍。换句话说,就是想尽一切办法让自己找出那个最重要的、唯一的选项,让自己在某一个时间段里只有一条路可以走。如果不在这些选择的节点想清楚,我们就会陷入模糊的状态,它会使我们产生本能的反应——娱...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E8%B5%B0%E7%A5%9E/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>11-06 13:20:01</span>
</div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
<div class="timeline-content">
<div class="timeline-title">
<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>走神</span>
</div>
<p>走神可以让我们活在任何时候,唯独不能活在当下。分心走神的原因,无非”当下太无聊、当下太痛苦”,因为身体受困于现实,只好让神思天马行空!
...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E9%9D%9E%E6%9A%B4%E5%8A%9B%E6%B2%9F%E9%80%9A/">
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<span>11-06 13:18:46</span>
</div>
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
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<span>非暴力沟通</span>
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<p>心理学有个史诗级的剧作叫做非暴力沟通,它能让一个人温柔而坚定的去说服对方。非暴力沟通大白话讲就是对他人足够的尊重,换取他人对你一次积极倾听的机会,所以这个技巧的核心是怎么做到尊重。一共分为四步
1.表...</p>
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<span>10-20 10:25:55</span>
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<h2>2023</h2>
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<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/A%20Guide%20to%20Effective%20Dialogue/">
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<span>11-06 13:25:00</span>
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<span>有效对话指南</span>
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<p>卡耐基说过:要说服别人同意你的观点,你就要让他觉得这是他自己的观点。也就是说,本质上没有人真正被别人说服,听或者不听都是他们自己的主动选择
目的沟通目的无非两个:
让对方认同我们的观点
或者按我们说...</p>
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<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/23/Cosy-Starter-Guide/">
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<span>10-23 12:01:13</span>
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<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="In Progress"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M4 20h4L18.5 9.5a1.5 1.5 0 0 0-4-4L4 16v4"></path><path d="M13.5 6.5l4 4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>Cosy 入门</span>
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<p>Hexo 安装主题Hexo 主题的安装方式非常简单,只需将主题 Hexo-theme-cosy 复制目录的 themes 目录下,然后在 Hexo 的 _config.yml 中修改下主题配置即可
#...</p>
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<p>Linear Markdown Sample
Heading 1 link Heading linkHeading 2 link Heading linkHeading 3 link Heading ...</p>
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<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/finance/%E4%BB%98%E9%B9%8F%EF%BC%9A%E5%B1%95%E6%9C%9B2023%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%8A%E5%B9%B4%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E6%A0%BC%E5%B1%80%EF%BC%8C%E5%BC%82%E5%B8%B8%E7%9A%84%E5%88%A9%E5%B7%AE%E6%84%8F%E5%91%B3%E7%9D%80%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88/">
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<span>11-06 13:14:30</span>
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<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>付鹏展望2023年下半年全球经济格局异常的利差意味着什么</span>
</div>
<p>
08年的金融危机或者09年是一个重要的时间节点到今年(2023年),在座各位你们将迎来第二个重要的节点,可能对于很多年轻人来讲,最好的一个时代结束了,我们所有人的下半辈子的投资,注意,也非常简...</p>
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<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/finance/%E4%BB%98%E9%B9%8F%EF%BC%9A%E9%80%86%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E5%8C%96%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%E9%85%8D%E7%BD%AE/">
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<span>11-06 13:17:08</span>
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<span>付鹏:逆全球化下的全球资产配置</span>
</div>
<p>为什么会有中美贸易战?为什么会有特朗普?他们手上有个重要的东西,选票。法国人民手上有个重要的东西,什么东西?公会。财富分配,到最后是需要权力去平衡的,也就简单讲,富者恒富,穷者不富的时候,他手上会用一...</p>
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<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E5%86%85%E9%83%A8%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E4%BA%A7%E5%87%BA%E6%84%8F%E8%AF%86/">
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<span>11-06 13:18:22</span>
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<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>内部循环与产出意识</span>
</div>
<p>每天早起、跑步、读书、学习,身体和心灵都在路上,然而这些都是内部循环,不直接对外产出,坚持这些习惯可以让我们成为更好的人,但不会成为更厉害的人。享受努力奋斗的同时,必须要有作品产出,参与到社会价值体系...</p>
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<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/24/social/%E6%9C%89%E6%95%88%E5%AF%B9%E8%AF%9D%E6%8C%87%E5%8D%97/">
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<span>10-24 09:47:38</span>
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<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>有效对话指南</span>
</div>
<p>卡耐基说过:要说服别人同意你的观点,你就要让他觉得这是他自己的观点。也就是说,本质上没有人真正被别人说服,听或者不听都是他们自己的主动选择
目的沟通目的无非两个:
让对方认同我们的观点
或者按我们说...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E7%83%A6%E6%81%BC%E7%9A%84%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>11-06 13:19:41</span>
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<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>烦恼的原因</span>
</div>
<p>分心开小差,很多人感觉可能不是个问题,甚至还对自己的一心二用而感觉沾沾自喜。比如跑步的时候考虑明后天的安排,吃饭的时候在担忧与他人的关系,睡觉的时候思绪像瀑布一样倾泻而出,是我们在不知不觉中徒生烦恼、...</p>
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<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E6%94%B9%E6%8E%89%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9%E5%9B%B0%E9%9A%BE%E7%97%87/">
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<span>11-06 13:19:17</span>
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<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>改掉选择困难症</span>
</div>
<p>对模糊零容忍。换句话说,就是想尽一切办法让自己找出那个最重要的、唯一的选项,让自己在某一个时间段里只有一条路可以走。如果不在这些选择的节点想清楚,我们就会陷入模糊的状态,它会使我们产生本能的反应——娱...</p>
</div>
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E8%B5%B0%E7%A5%9E/">
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<span>11-06 13:20:01</span>
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<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>走神</span>
</div>
<p>走神可以让我们活在任何时候,唯独不能活在当下。分心走神的原因,无非”当下太无聊、当下太痛苦”,因为身体受困于现实,只好让神思天马行空!
...</p>
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</a>
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<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/11/06/social/%E9%9D%9E%E6%9A%B4%E5%8A%9B%E6%B2%9F%E9%80%9A/">
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<span>11-06 13:18:46</span>
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<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>非暴力沟通</span>
</div>
<p>心理学有个史诗级的剧作叫做非暴力沟通,它能让一个人温柔而坚定的去说服对方。非暴力沟通大白话讲就是对他人足够的尊重,换取他人对你一次积极倾听的机会,所以这个技巧的核心是怎么做到尊重。一共分为四步
1.表...</p>
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<a class="timeline-item" href="/2023/10/20/front-end/verdaccio/">
<div class="timeline-info">
<span>10-20 10:25:55</span>
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<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<span>verdaccio 搭建 npm私库</span>
</div>
<p>使用 docker 搭建 verdaccio创建 &amp;amp; 配置config.yaml文件
# Read about the best practices
# https://verdaccio.o...</p>
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@ -183,8 +183,19 @@
</li> </li>
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Finance
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Front-End Front-End
@ -257,7 +268,7 @@
</svg> </svg>
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<span class="post-num">Total of 1 Posts</span> <span class="post-num">Total of 7 Posts</span>
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@ -269,7 +280,7 @@
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<a href="/2023/10/25/A%20Guide%20to%20Effective%20Dialogue/"> <a href="/2023/11/06/A%20Guide%20to%20Effective%20Dialogue/">
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@ -281,7 +292,115 @@
</p> </p>
<span class="post-date"> <span class="post-date">
<b> <b>
10 25 11 06
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<em>/ 2023</em>
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<p class="ellipsis">
<span>走神</span>
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<b>
11 06
</b>
<em>/ 2023</em>
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<p class="ellipsis">
<span>烦恼的原因</span>
</p>
<span class="post-date">
<b>
11 06
</b>
<em>/ 2023</em>
</span>
</a>
</li>
<li data-status="done">
<a href="/2023/11/06/social/%E6%94%B9%E6%8E%89%E9%80%89%E6%8B%A9%E5%9B%B0%E9%9A%BE%E7%97%87/">
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<p class="ellipsis">
<span>改掉选择困难症</span>
</p>
<span class="post-date">
<b>
11 06
</b>
<em>/ 2023</em>
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</a>
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<p class="ellipsis">
<span>非暴力沟通</span>
</p>
<span class="post-date">
<b>
11 06
</b>
<em>/ 2023</em>
</span>
</a>
</li>
<li data-status="done">
<a href="/2023/11/06/social/%E5%86%85%E9%83%A8%E5%BE%AA%E7%8E%AF%E4%B8%8E%E4%BA%A7%E5%87%BA%E6%84%8F%E8%AF%86/">
<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<p class="ellipsis">
<span>内部循环与产出意识</span>
</p>
<span class="post-date">
<b>
11 06
</b>
<em>/ 2023</em>
</span>
</a>
</li>
<li data-status="done">
<a href="/2023/10/24/social/%E6%9C%89%E6%95%88%E5%AF%B9%E8%AF%9D%E6%8C%87%E5%8D%97/">
<span class="icon status tip right" data-tip="Done"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"></circle><path d="M9 12l2 2l4-4"></path></g></svg></span>
<p class="ellipsis">
<span>有效对话指南</span>
</p>
<span class="post-date">
<b>
10 24
</b> </b>
<em>/ 2023</em> <em>/ 2023</em>
</span> </span>

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<span>付鹏:逆全球化下的全球资产配置</span>
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11 06
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<span>付鹏展望2023年下半年全球经济格局异常的利差意味着什么</span>
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<span class="post-date">
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11 06
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@ -269,7 +280,7 @@
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"tip-status-doing": "In Progress",
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@ -183,8 +183,19 @@
</li> </li>
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Finance
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@ -183,8 +183,19 @@
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Front-End Front-End