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2023-11-06 13:25:44 +08:00
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付鹏:逆全球化下的全球资产配置
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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2023-11-08 09:43:54 +08:00
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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2023-11-07 13:04:43 +08:00
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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2023-11-03 14:52:16 +08:00
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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2023-11-06 16:14:34 +08:00
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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2023-11-03 14:52:16 +08:00
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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2023-11-03 14:52:16 +08:00
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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2023-11-07 16:12:40 +08:00
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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2023-11-03 14:52:16 +08:00
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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2023-10-24 09:48:00 +08:00
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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2023-10-30 10:58:06 +08:00
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<div class="ellipsis">Resume</div>
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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<p>Category</p>
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<ul>
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2023-11-06 13:25:44 +08:00
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<li class="">
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2023-11-08 09:43:54 +08:00
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<a href="/categories/Hexo/">
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M5.636 5.636a9 9 0 0 1 13.397.747L13.414 12l5.619 5.617A9 9 0 1 1 5.636 5.636z"></path><circle cx="11.5" cy="7.5" r="1" fill="currentColor"></circle></g></svg>
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<span>
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2023-11-08 09:43:54 +08:00
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Hexo
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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</span>
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</div>
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</a>
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2023-11-03 16:57:27 +08:00
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<li class="">
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2023-11-08 09:43:54 +08:00
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<a href="/categories/EQ/">
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M4 17v1a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h12a2 2 0 0 0 2-2v-1"></path><path d="M8 16h8"></path><path d="M8.322 12.582l7.956.836"></path><path d="M8.787 9.168l7.826 1.664"></path><path d="M10.096 5.764l7.608 2.472"></path></g></svg>
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<div class="ellipsis">
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<span>
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2023-11-08 09:43:54 +08:00
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EQ
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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</span>
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</div>
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2023-11-06 15:04:45 +08:00
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<li class="active">
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<a href="/categories/Finance/">
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2023-11-06 13:28:00 +08:00
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2023-11-06 13:25:44 +08:00
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<div class="ellipsis">
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<span>
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2023-11-06 15:04:45 +08:00
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Finance
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</span>
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</div>
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</a>
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2023-11-06 15:04:45 +08:00
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<li class="">
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<a href="/categories/Front-End/">
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2023-11-06 13:28:00 +08:00
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><g fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"><path d="M20 4l-2 14.5l-6 2l-6-2L4 4z"></path><path d="M7.5 8h3v8l-2-1"></path><path d="M16.5 8H14a.5.5 0 0 0-.5.5v3a.5.5 0 0 0 .5.5h1.423a.5.5 0 0 1 .495.57L15.5 15.5l-2 .5"></path></g></svg>
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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<div class="ellipsis">
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<span>
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2023-11-06 15:04:45 +08:00
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Front-End
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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</span>
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</div>
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</a>
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</ul>
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</section>
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2023-10-24 09:48:00 +08:00
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付鹏:逆全球化下的全球资产配置
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<article><p>为什么会有中美贸易战?为什么会有特朗普?他们手上有个重要的东西,选票。法国人民手上有个重要的东西,什么东西?公会。财富分配,到最后是需要权力去平衡的,也就简单讲,富者恒富,穷者不富的时候,他手上会用一个最简单东西投出民粹主义的路线,就是选票。哪个领导人愿意带著我们把工资从十块钱降到二十,我就选他。有两种做法:第一种,让企业吐回来。第二种,让中国吐回来。中国拿走的劳动收入增速,现在要吐回来,这就是逆全球化。企业部门拿走的高杠杆,高负债,获得的财富积累要吐回来。然后你就会发现,他的收入增速上来,他会长期的怎么样?通胀。利率水平增高,导致企业部门(美国制造业)变差,其实就是代表著美国的左右两边。</p>
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<p>在这种背景下,既然不能从市场层面上获得收入增速,就得从你自身提高收入增速,答案是什么?技术进步。现在工人工资我是压不下去了,怎么办?三个工人变两工人+机器人。所以你猜美国现在在干嘛?右侧是这帮企业,左侧是美国的这帮中底层的,这些老百姓小日子过得太Happy了。左侧这帮企业,收入增速7.5,通胀5个点。开心吧?挣的钱存到银行,现在5个点,开心吧?然后08年美国次贷危机,破裂了以后,美国锁定在了0-0.25的这个低息区域,老百姓买了低息贷款的房子,储蓄多了,开心吧?中国出口的赚,买了美国国债,相当于还要回储给你们,最后发现,美国挣得多、存的多、债务还低。从08年到23年,这15年,就相当于去了15年的杠杆。企业部门要借贷,5.25的利率高于目前3点几的增速,被迫进入到利润下降,未来要提高增长,只有一个方案,就是技术进步。</p>
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<p>硅谷大裁员是不影响就业的,这帮生产率高的人,转化再就业的能力是极强的。生产率低的人,出现大规模失业才是最麻烦的。简单讲,美国这帮黑人们如果全都失业了,那美国就完了。08年后,企业,银行,居民,这三者的分配关系,就有问题了,一直拖到现在,已经无解了。全世界从过去的十年,只有一个大的变量:”技术进步”。我个人有一种感觉,当前的这个时间点,在炒的人工智能,跟过去的十年浮现出来的不太一样。美国股市现在就那几个科技公司拉着每股涨,是好事。几家公司是在5.25的利率环境下,拉动每股涨的。它不是那个0到0.25的利率拉动的,能够扛得住资金成本5到5.25,还能带来增长,意味著AI可能是真的。</p>
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<p>08年到2028年,整20年的周期,足够一个新技术带动全社会变动了,这几家公司可能在未来3到5年拉着美股,创新高 继续创新高。后面的涨是正儿八经的生产率提高的涨,前两年是啥?是低利率推著泡沫在涨。如果美国完成了这条线,既保证了企业在技术进步下维持高利润增长,又保证底层居民获得了高收入增速,你猜美国的利率会是什么情况?他的利率会一直很高,进入到高增长、高通胀、高利率,三高。</p>
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<p>那么中国会事什么情况?美国不给技术,转化生产也不是中国制造了,逆全球化嘛!国内会低增长、低通胀、低利率。从全球分工来看,美国底层是技术研发,中间生产,下面是市场。如果生产环节不给中国,高端制造给谁?大概率是日本。</p>
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<p>日本的全球分工的角色会跟过去的二三十年不一样,英国的老牌家族的基金家族办公开始跑到日本租办公室招人了,二三十年前的时候跑到香港租办公室招人,跑到北京设立办事处,为什么?答案只有一个,看好该国未来20年30年的增长。</p>
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<p>在过去的20年发展过程中,我们的生产环节是针对全世界的,如果出不去。只能转化成内需。我们的一个大问题出来了,过去的10年中国经济最大的不同,就是现在的年轻人债务过高,内需是背著重重的负债前行的,有一些人不准备生人再去背了。直到疫情过恢复以后,到现在为止不缺生产,缺谁买单。内需要么是政府部门,要么是居民部门,一个是投资不动,一个消费不动,有钱的有钱死,没钱的负债死。昨天我看又新能源车下乡了,然后你去看看那个评论区,90后崛起了,不像十年前那么好骗了,他们咋回答呢?啥好事都想著我们农村人。十年前,什么家电下乡,卖不掉的冰箱……就是电器,卖给我们农村人,这韭菜不能照着一个地儿割啊。</p>
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<p>笃定了老美不会给我们这条科技树,所以经济当前压根就不是我们最大的问题,只要能守住底线,也就是你的居民,仍然是可爱的人,底线思维即可。当下最大的目标是重建这个秩序,美国不带我玩,我就去拉着ABC,去重构这种国际分工、全球化市场结构,重构我们的科技树。中国现在的投资,跟老美一样,都在反映科技树,但是”市场决定的科技树(市场经济)”和”政府主导的科技树(计划经济)”结局是不一样的。所以低增长、低利率的国内必须要点科技树,但体现在股票上,国内是什么光景,美股是什么光景?</p>
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<p>很多人说A股弱,美股强?因为人家现在高增长、高通胀、高利率、和消费市场。08年之后。老美去了15年杠杆。居民部门老老实实还了15年的债,日本人老老实实还了30年。美国的利率水平绝对不再是以前的路径,不再会靠降息加杠杆的方式去推动增长,而是要靠生产校长的扩张,技术在两三年后我们有可能会迎来一个”iPhone时刻”。</p>
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<p>我们现在所有人依旧想的是如果企业不行,最终还得是降息。美国会出现一种情况就是企业的技术进步,把它带上去,整个美元的长短端利率都在5-5.25,那我就请问你光现金和资产回报都5-5.25了,你觉得黄金会奔三千四千五千吗?黄金的之所以在高价,因为长期利率在地位,加上杠杆,但是如果长短端的投资回报率在5-5.25,你还会持有黄金吗?</p>
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<p>08年金融危机以后,老美痛定思痛,开始在极低的利率下,去除杠杆,也就是讲现在你看见的美国是08年的美国导致的一个结果。而08年的中国,在干什么呢?所有人熟知的叫四万亿(可不止),总结一句话,就是给居民部门加杠杆。中国拖起了全球经济,代价是这一代居民部门的储蓄和杠杆,就是老百姓讲的掏空了几个钱包。</p>
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<p>真正的大交易者,用什么东西做负债,用什么东西当资产。如果现在世界格局是这样,请问我们个人该怎么办?举个例子:我09年回国,2010年开始到2016年股灾,人民币单边每年升值3%,美元官方利率0到0.2%,加上手续费,美元借款资金成本大约2%。就造成了实际借美元利率是-1%,那时候北上广的房价是多少?房子的背后就是人口、收入、杠杆,而其中最重要的吗,在当时,不是人口、也不是收入,而是杠杆。我的借贷成本如果-1%的话,这不就是热钱吗?借-1%的钱来中国就好了,干什么东西,买房呗!</p>
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<p>所以放到现在的今天,个人该怎么办呢?美国进入到三高的状态,中国进入到这种三低的状态。当下经营贷3.2%,人民币贬值,实际人民币借贷成就是负的!所以答案就是,人民币长期利率水平会非常的低,借贷低息的人民币,人民币贬值,官方的借贷成本会从3个点掉到2个点,并且维持在2个点,三到五年让你借贷人民币的真实利率一定在0以下。所以从大交易者的角度,负债解决了,资产端该买啥?能够给你二字头融资成本,一定说明国内的资产端没有高息回报,我们不出境去哪儿找高息的资产?我偷偷摸摸告诉大家过一段时间你们会发现某个类型的ETF手续费还会增加,什么东西用人民币结算但是持有的是境外高息资产(QDII)?美国光银行存款利率在5%,你该干嘛?你们会发现巴菲特买的西方石油公司、买的日本的五大商社股息率在10以上,你们知道该干嘛?如果这个东西一直是这样倒着,咱们哪来的信心觉得外资会流入?</p>
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<p>所以这就是一个重要的分水岭,这个最核心的原理理解,超级的重要!绝对对你后面三五年巨大的受益。</p>
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2023-10-24 09:48:00 +08:00
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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<span>付鹏:逆全球化下的全球资产配置</span>
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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<p> Mozzie</p>
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<span>Published on</span>
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2023-11-06 13:25:44 +08:00
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<p>2023-11-06</p>
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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<p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA 4.0</a></p>
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window.valine = {
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2023-11-06 15:04:45 +08:00
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enable: "false",
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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appId: 'TisMit6uhflounFqAN3ZGjgq-MdYXbMMI',
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appKey: 'CdjirjYdz07U5i62ElsJvXUh',
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avatar: 'monsterid',
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cdn: '//unpkg.com/valine@latest/dist/Valine.min.js',
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serverURLs: '//tismit6u.api.lncldglobal.com'
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};
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</script>
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2023-10-24 09:48:00 +08:00
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<script src="/js/a02fa72b.js"></script>
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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</main>
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</body>
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<script>
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window.i18n = {
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"tip-collapse": "Collapse",
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"tip-expand": "Expand",
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"text-select": "select",
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"text-move": "movement",
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"text-esc": "close",
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"tip-status-done": "Done",
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"tip-status-doing": "In Progress",
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"tip-status-todo": "Todo",
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"tip-status-other": "Duplicate",
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"tip-status-default": "Default",
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2023-10-25 22:07:27 +08:00
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"tip-roadmap-today": "Positioning to the today",
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"text-search": "Search...",
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2023-10-26 15:09:35 +08:00
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"text-today": "Today",
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// month
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"January": "January",
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"February": "February",
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"March": "March",
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"April": "April",
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"May": "May",
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"June": "June",
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"July": "July",
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"August": "August",
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"September": "September",
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"October": "October",
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"November": "November",
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"December": "December",
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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}
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</script>
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2023-11-06 16:14:34 +08:00
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<script src="/js/58c91c4e.js"></script>
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2023-10-24 09:50:42 +08:00
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2023-10-24 09:48:00 +08:00
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</html>
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